Week 3 Pigskin Pick ‘em

OK, so perhaps I overestimated my pick proficiency in last week’s column. Maybe, maaaaaaybe I hadn’t exactly picked every game correct from week one, so perhaps, perhaaaaaaaps my drop-off to week two wasn’t quite as precipitous as it would appear on first glance. Maybe, just maybe, perhaps these first two weeks of the NFL season have been so back-asswards with erstwhile contenders (I’m looking at you, Minnesota) falling to supposed pretenders (Ladies and Gentlemen, your division leading Tampa Bay Bucs!) that I consider myself lucky to have picked 6 out 16 games—especially when “experts” like SI’s Peter King go 4-12. But perhaps, just perhaps, maybe this week will be the one where things quit being so unpredictable, play quality increases, the good teams really start to separate from the bad teams, and my 3-game parlay pays off at a cool 6.5:1. Perhaps.

All gambling hopes aside (though I will be going with the Thursday lines on which I placed my wagers), please enjoy this week’s picks (Home team in CAPS):

Tennessee (+6.5) over ST. LOUIS – The immutable gambling law of Martz will trump any losses the Titans have incurred in their recent time in salary cap hell.

Jacksonville (+3) over N.Y. JETS – Sports Guy said it best: “We need to break out the radar gun for some of these Chad Pennington throws—it’s like watching Johnny Damon trying to reach second base from the warning track at Yankee Stadium”. Seriously, it’s not like Pennington had a gun to begin with, but after his shoulder problems last season, he’s totally helpless back there. Methinks it won’t be long before one of Jets’ fans biggest fears is realized as the words “Jay Fiedler is warming up on the sidelines” is shouted by an overenthusiastic Fox color man. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

PHILLY (-8) over Oakland – OK, OK…I realize that picking the Niners to cover against the Iggles last week was a stupid move, alright? Let a man make a mistake, you fuggin’ jackals!!! By the way, this is the first of three games that are on my parlay card.

CHICAGO (+3) over Cincinnati – Classic letdown game for the Bungles, who owe their 2-0 record as much to the quality (or lack thereof) of their competition (Vikes, Brownies) as they do to their own offensive prowess. Also, thanks to the return of safety extraordinaire Mike Brown, the Bears defense is that good.

New Orleans (+4) over MINNESOTA – The Saints are the official new Road Warriors of the NFL, and until the City of New Orleans agrees to build a new stadium after the Hurricane Katrina clean up is complete, I will maintain my slim hopes that the team will end up in it’s rightful new home: Los Angeles. C’mon, think about it! Where else do Saints belong besides the City of Angels? LA has been begging for a team since the Raiders and Rams skipped town in the early 90’s and Saints’ owner Tom Benson has no love lost with the government of New Orleans. Plus, don’t they have bigger things to worry about rebuilding than a new state-of-the-art stadium for a mediocre team in a less-than Top 30 market? Really, the reasons are innumerable. Really. It’s gotta happen.

Carolina (-3) over MIAMI – Just when you thought, after their big week one win over Denver, that the ‘Phins were ready for a surge, somebody accidentally let Gus Frerotte walk in front of a mirror. Finally realizing who he was, Frerotte played a god-awful game against an average Jets team and Miami was sunk. This is the second of three games that I’m parlaying.

INDIANAPOLIS (-13.5) over Cleveland – OK, so the Colts have a defense now. Big whoop. They still can’t play in snow, so they still won’t be able to beat the Pats, Stillers, or the rest of the AFC elite unless they get homefield advantage through the playoffs. Which they might. Shit.

GREEN BAY (+3.5) over Tampa Bay – This is a classic hunch pick for me, which usually means that I’ll either get it totally wrong, or it will be the only pick of the week that I actually get right. Either way, I’m effed, so why not just make the pick, right? Tampa’s not as good as they’ve looked, not with Brian Griese, the man who was unseated by Jake the Snake in Denver, at QB. And the Pack isn’t nearly as bad as they’ve looked…as long as they put the ball in Ahman Green and Najeh Davenport’s hands about 35 times. Otherwise, this could be a blowout. Or a nailbiter. I don’t know.

BUFFALO (-3) over Atlanta – Gimpy Vick + suffocating Bills D = big win for the home team. Not enough of a lock to garner a spot on the parlay, but enough to make me bench Vick this week in Fantasy Football in place of (gulp) Kurt Warner. And speaking of which…

Arizona (+6) over SEATTLE – It’s really hard to fathom which team’s collapse was more painful to watch last week. Arizona’s meltdown at the end of the game (Warner getting sacked with 20 seconds left, in the opposing red zone, then inexplicably choosing not to spike the ball, attempting to call and run a play, an O-Lineman getting called for a false start, leading to a 10-second run-off and the end of the game) was certainly more sudden, but the ‘Hawks near meltdown (after building a 21-point first half lead, they allowed the Falcons to score 18 unanswered points and come within a Mike Vick hammy pull of coming all the way back). I guess this week will provide the ultimate test of NFC West futility, and to be honest, it’s lookin’ dicey.

New England (+3) over PITTSBURGH – Yeah, so, I’m a Homer. What’s it to ya? GO PATS!!!

Dallas (-6.5) over SAN FRANCISCO – Fine. I’ve learned my lesson. No more “Awful team plus the points over the better team that lost a heartbreaker last week” for me. Thanks a lot, Niners.

N.Y. Giants (+6) over SAN DIEGO – Until Marty Schottenheimer proves that he’s relearned how to utilize the two most potent red zone weapons in football (LaDanian Tomlinson & Antonio Gates), I won’t give him change for a twenty nevermind 6 points on a nationally televised game against a resurgent Giants’ defense. By the way, that coughing sound you hear is Marty choking away another promising season by playcalling too tight after getting beaten in the playoffs the year before.

Kansas City (+3) over DENVER – Jake the Snake! Jake the Snake! This is the third of three picks on my Sunday parlay. KC is getting three full points against a Denver team that, just a week ago, was manhandled by the Gus Frerotte-led Dolphins in Miami. Yes, that is two Gus Frerotte references in one column (OK, now 3). Does this make me obsessed? Fine, then I’m obsessed. Even still, in Priest “John” Holmes and Larry “Gramama” Johnson, the Chiefs have the absolute best 1-2 running back combo in the NFL and will run roughshod over a Denver D-Line that is comprised entirely of Cleveland Brown castaways. It’s gonna be brutal.

Last Week: 6-10 (37.5%)
Overall: 6-10 (37.5%)