What the eff was I thinking!?!?
Ayyyiiiiiiiiii!!! Last weekend was a pretty good reminder as to why H doesn’t give me an allowance big enough to afford a trip to Vegas.
The good news: I nailed the Rams upset win over the Seahawks at +4, even calling St. Louis to win straight out; and I resisted the temptation to take the Broncos with the points and was rewarded with a big Indy win.
Now the bad news: Minnesota drove one more nail in the Lambeau Mystique coffin with a big win in Green Bay as Brett Favre did his best Vinny T. impression, throwing four big picks against a Vikes defense that only had eleven all season in what may turn out to be his final NFL game. Oh, and Randy Moss rubbed his ass on a goalpost. In case you hadn’t heard.
And the ugly: What the eff was I thinking!?!? In my playoff picks column last week I actually wrote these words:
“Now, a lot of folks are gonna be yammering on about Chargers’ coach Marty Schottenheimer’s record of historic and monumental collapses in the playoffs: Ernest Byner’s fumble. “The Drive”. We all know the stories. But here’s the thing, folks. How monumental would a collapse in this game be? First round of the playoffs? Against the Jets? The second of two games on a Saturday? You think this is a big enough game for a true Schottenheimerian choke?”
Yes. Yes it is. A home game in the first round. Against a clearly inferior Jets team. Favored by six and a half (SIX AND A HALF!?!). In the Charger’s first playoff appearance of this century. Of COURSE this was a big enough game! This game was absolutely huge for the Chargers and the city of San Diego, who had jumped on the bandwagon with both feet. And of COURSE the game would be close, with Marty getting absurdly conservative in the big game (hence 10 points in the first 59:50). Add to this the fact that it took me nearly a full page to explain why I was picking the Bolts in this game, breaking the cardinal rule of “If you need to talk yourself into the pick, DON’T MAKE THE PICK”, and I knew I was sunk before I even drove home on Friday.
Egad, ye gambling gods, I shall trifle with thee no more!
On to the picks…
(Home team in CAPS)
N.Y. Jets (+8.5) over PITTSBURGH – Okay, so I may have made a few minor miscalculations about the Jets last week. I called them “unimpressive”, “pedestrian” and “clearly the worst team in the AFC playoffs” and bemoaned their 4-5 record since November 1st. So of course they come out and dominate an explosive Chargers offense to the tune of ten points allowed until the final seconds until Eric Barton morphed into Ron Artest and gave San Diego the opportunity to tie it up. We all know what happens next: in the words of Morgs "Nate Kaeding, wide right. My wallet? More light."
The Stillers, the league’s first 15-1 team since the Vikes of ’99, are coming into the game very well rested after an off week (and really two weeks, after sitting their starters in week 17 against the Bills). They have been virtually unbeatable this year, as rookie QB Ben Roethlesberger (after four months, I no longer need spell check on this one, btw) brings a 13-0 record into his first career playoff game. The defense is hungry and the crowd is sure to be nice and lubed up for the 4:30 start at Heinz. Add to all this the prospect of a good coach (Bill Cowher) taking on a knucklehead coach (Herm Edwards) and this game should be in the bag.
So why have I been wavering all morning? All week, really? Really it comes down to one simple note about the most important position on the field: It’s the quarterbacks, stupid! Only one rookie quarterback in the last 35 years has won his first playoff start (Shaun King for the ’99 Bucs). Granted, Big Ben is a once in a generation type of success story, but does he really have the chops to compete at this level, with this kind of pressure on this big a stage? Yeah, probably. But will a matchup between two grind-it-out, ball-control teams result in a blowout? Doubtful. Stillers win, Jets cover. The road to the Super Bowl still runs through the Steel City.
St. Louis (+7) over ATLANTA – When in doubt, go with the hot hand. Honestly, I don’t know what possessed me to make this pick, but as I’ve poured over stats and opinions about this matchup, nothing has come along to convince me that I’m an idiot for making this pick. Which worries me.
The Rams looked beatable in their game last weekend against Seattle, but managed to pull it out with superb play by Marc “Christopher Moltisanti” Bulger and his plethora of receiving options (Cam Cleeland? I thought he was the tight ends coach for the Saints ferchrissakes!). The Falcons haven’t played their starters since mid-December and come in with goal line basher T.J. Duckett barely recovered from arthroscopy on his knee and scat back Warrick Dunn having logged 250+ carries for the first time in his career. St. Lou’s pass defense is susceptible to an accurate arm, but that might be the only tool that Mike Vick has yet to master in the NFL.
The smart move would be to hedge my bets, like I did for the Jets-Steelers game and pick Atlanta to win but not cover. But they won’t. The Rams pull the upset and win outright in Atlanta on their way to the Super Bowl. Yeah, you heard me.
PHILADELPHIA (-8) over Minnesota – Before I start, I should say that this game was the first pick I had set in stone and the last write-up that I put together. This game just doesn’t excite me like the rest for some reason, despite the Vikes’ strong win in Green Bay last weekend. I’m sick to death of hearing about Randy Moss this and Randy Moss that and “can you believe he mooned those people” and “didja see the afro on him” and “I can’t believe he burned Al Harris for a thirty yard TD pass on one good leg…well, yes, I can actually. Fuckin’ Al Harris”. And that’s not even to mention all the carrying on about the Iggles’ loss of Terrell Owens, their substandard receiving corps in the wake of that injury, and the fact that they haven’t played a meaningful game since November. I’m done with it. The Eagles’ secondary is a far superior squad to the beat up Packers DBs and should have much less trouble staying with the hamstrung (literally…ma-ha!) Moss. The Vikes showcased zero running game whatsoever in a game they led from the get-go…you can’t run out the clock against a hard-hitting team like Philly with passes to the backs in the flat. Donovan McNabb will NOT hand the game to the Vikes like Brett Favre did with his Hail Maria Full of Grace INTs. And Andy Reid will not let this season be complete without another loss at home in the NFC Championship Game.
Oh, and Daunte Culpepper has wee little hands. Just thought I’d throw that in there.
NEW ENGLAND (-2) over Indianapolis – My god. I have been waiting for this game all week. Nice of the NFL to schedule it as the last game of the weekend, because it is seriously killing me. I have butterflies in my stomach. I feel like a virgin on Prom Night thinking about what the boys from Foxborough have in store for Pretty-Boy Peyton and the massively overrated Colts.
You’ve heard the hype over the past week, as you have all season: The unstoppable Colts offense. MVPeyton and his record-setting QB rating and 49 TD passes. Three WRs with over 1000 yards receiving (note: why don’t these guys have a nickname yet? I’m going with “The Three Amigos”, and here’s why: 1. there’s one-two-three of them, 2. The original Three Amigos rode horses, also known as Colts, and 3. There is no reason #3. Just go with the name and shut the fuck up).
But here’s the thing. We’ve heard all this hype before. Nigh a year ago, if memory serves, a very similar Indy team came to The Razor to face a very similar Pats squad under very similar circumstances (it was the AFC Championship Game, but close enuff). The Indy offense was unstoppable then too. Peyton was coming off another 4000+ yard season and another surgical dismantling of the Broncos and had all these same weapons at his disposal. And what happened? Pats score first, a TD pass from Touchdown Tom Brady to D-Give, and never look back. The rest of the Pats’ scoring that day consisted of five Adam Vinatieri figgies and a safety on a botched punt snap (Indy’s first punt attempt of the post-season, if you’ll recall). 24 points for the home team, not nearly enough to stop the vaunted Colts offensive juggernaut, right? Well, four picks (three by Ty Law), five sacks and a forced fumble by Big Willie McGinnest later, and a nation full of “experts” are dining on a big fat crow buffet.
This year will be different, no doubt. Law is injured and ineligible to play for the balance of the season, as is fellow starting cornerback Tyrone Poole, leaving a pair of undrafted rookies (Randall Gay and Earthwind Moreland), a converted safety (Eugene Wilson) and a veteran wide receiver (Troy Brown) to defend against Pretty Boy Peyton and The Three Amigos (see how good that sounds?). The absence of these key components has proven fuel to the collective fire of the same “experts” who believe that this is finally the year that Peyton and the Colts get the Belichick monkey off their backs. But what is important to note is that of the four INTs that the Pats reeled in last year, only one was of spectacular fashion (Law’s diving snag on the far sideline in front of Starvin’ Marvin Harrison). The other three were the result of tipped passes or excellent pressure by the Pats’ D-line and linebackers, leading to easy picks by Law and Poole. Picks that any DB worth his jock would catch. This game has MUCH more to do with the Pats’ front seven vs. the Colts O-line/TEs, a battle that the boys from Foxborough continue to dominate. Look for a big game from Tedy Bruschi (great article by Josh Elliot in last week’s SI, btw), Colt-killah McGinnest, Big Play Jarvis Green and Rough Rider Roosevelt Colvin, both of which who could be seeing added playing time on account of Pro-Bowler (not Pro Bowler) Richard Seymour’s leg injury. Pats win again and Peyton goes home to look at his pretty pair of MVP trophies (with no Lombardi trophy to match).
If you’re looking for me this weekend, I’ll be the one chewing on the nubs where my fingers used to be.
I love this shit.
Last week: 2-2
The good news: I nailed the Rams upset win over the Seahawks at +4, even calling St. Louis to win straight out; and I resisted the temptation to take the Broncos with the points and was rewarded with a big Indy win.
Now the bad news: Minnesota drove one more nail in the Lambeau Mystique coffin with a big win in Green Bay as Brett Favre did his best Vinny T. impression, throwing four big picks against a Vikes defense that only had eleven all season in what may turn out to be his final NFL game. Oh, and Randy Moss rubbed his ass on a goalpost. In case you hadn’t heard.
And the ugly: What the eff was I thinking!?!? In my playoff picks column last week I actually wrote these words:
“Now, a lot of folks are gonna be yammering on about Chargers’ coach Marty Schottenheimer’s record of historic and monumental collapses in the playoffs: Ernest Byner’s fumble. “The Drive”. We all know the stories. But here’s the thing, folks. How monumental would a collapse in this game be? First round of the playoffs? Against the Jets? The second of two games on a Saturday? You think this is a big enough game for a true Schottenheimerian choke?”
Yes. Yes it is. A home game in the first round. Against a clearly inferior Jets team. Favored by six and a half (SIX AND A HALF!?!). In the Charger’s first playoff appearance of this century. Of COURSE this was a big enough game! This game was absolutely huge for the Chargers and the city of San Diego, who had jumped on the bandwagon with both feet. And of COURSE the game would be close, with Marty getting absurdly conservative in the big game (hence 10 points in the first 59:50). Add to this the fact that it took me nearly a full page to explain why I was picking the Bolts in this game, breaking the cardinal rule of “If you need to talk yourself into the pick, DON’T MAKE THE PICK”, and I knew I was sunk before I even drove home on Friday.
Egad, ye gambling gods, I shall trifle with thee no more!
On to the picks…
(Home team in CAPS)
N.Y. Jets (+8.5) over PITTSBURGH – Okay, so I may have made a few minor miscalculations about the Jets last week. I called them “unimpressive”, “pedestrian” and “clearly the worst team in the AFC playoffs” and bemoaned their 4-5 record since November 1st. So of course they come out and dominate an explosive Chargers offense to the tune of ten points allowed until the final seconds until Eric Barton morphed into Ron Artest and gave San Diego the opportunity to tie it up. We all know what happens next: in the words of Morgs "Nate Kaeding, wide right. My wallet? More light."
The Stillers, the league’s first 15-1 team since the Vikes of ’99, are coming into the game very well rested after an off week (and really two weeks, after sitting their starters in week 17 against the Bills). They have been virtually unbeatable this year, as rookie QB Ben Roethlesberger (after four months, I no longer need spell check on this one, btw) brings a 13-0 record into his first career playoff game. The defense is hungry and the crowd is sure to be nice and lubed up for the 4:30 start at Heinz. Add to all this the prospect of a good coach (Bill Cowher) taking on a knucklehead coach (Herm Edwards) and this game should be in the bag.
So why have I been wavering all morning? All week, really? Really it comes down to one simple note about the most important position on the field: It’s the quarterbacks, stupid! Only one rookie quarterback in the last 35 years has won his first playoff start (Shaun King for the ’99 Bucs). Granted, Big Ben is a once in a generation type of success story, but does he really have the chops to compete at this level, with this kind of pressure on this big a stage? Yeah, probably. But will a matchup between two grind-it-out, ball-control teams result in a blowout? Doubtful. Stillers win, Jets cover. The road to the Super Bowl still runs through the Steel City.
St. Louis (+7) over ATLANTA – When in doubt, go with the hot hand. Honestly, I don’t know what possessed me to make this pick, but as I’ve poured over stats and opinions about this matchup, nothing has come along to convince me that I’m an idiot for making this pick. Which worries me.
The Rams looked beatable in their game last weekend against Seattle, but managed to pull it out with superb play by Marc “Christopher Moltisanti” Bulger and his plethora of receiving options (Cam Cleeland? I thought he was the tight ends coach for the Saints ferchrissakes!). The Falcons haven’t played their starters since mid-December and come in with goal line basher T.J. Duckett barely recovered from arthroscopy on his knee and scat back Warrick Dunn having logged 250+ carries for the first time in his career. St. Lou’s pass defense is susceptible to an accurate arm, but that might be the only tool that Mike Vick has yet to master in the NFL.
The smart move would be to hedge my bets, like I did for the Jets-Steelers game and pick Atlanta to win but not cover. But they won’t. The Rams pull the upset and win outright in Atlanta on their way to the Super Bowl. Yeah, you heard me.
PHILADELPHIA (-8) over Minnesota – Before I start, I should say that this game was the first pick I had set in stone and the last write-up that I put together. This game just doesn’t excite me like the rest for some reason, despite the Vikes’ strong win in Green Bay last weekend. I’m sick to death of hearing about Randy Moss this and Randy Moss that and “can you believe he mooned those people” and “didja see the afro on him” and “I can’t believe he burned Al Harris for a thirty yard TD pass on one good leg…well, yes, I can actually. Fuckin’ Al Harris”. And that’s not even to mention all the carrying on about the Iggles’ loss of Terrell Owens, their substandard receiving corps in the wake of that injury, and the fact that they haven’t played a meaningful game since November. I’m done with it. The Eagles’ secondary is a far superior squad to the beat up Packers DBs and should have much less trouble staying with the hamstrung (literally…ma-ha!) Moss. The Vikes showcased zero running game whatsoever in a game they led from the get-go…you can’t run out the clock against a hard-hitting team like Philly with passes to the backs in the flat. Donovan McNabb will NOT hand the game to the Vikes like Brett Favre did with his Hail Maria Full of Grace INTs. And Andy Reid will not let this season be complete without another loss at home in the NFC Championship Game.
Oh, and Daunte Culpepper has wee little hands. Just thought I’d throw that in there.
NEW ENGLAND (-2) over Indianapolis – My god. I have been waiting for this game all week. Nice of the NFL to schedule it as the last game of the weekend, because it is seriously killing me. I have butterflies in my stomach. I feel like a virgin on Prom Night thinking about what the boys from Foxborough have in store for Pretty-Boy Peyton and the massively overrated Colts.
You’ve heard the hype over the past week, as you have all season: The unstoppable Colts offense. MVPeyton and his record-setting QB rating and 49 TD passes. Three WRs with over 1000 yards receiving (note: why don’t these guys have a nickname yet? I’m going with “The Three Amigos”, and here’s why: 1. there’s one-two-three of them, 2. The original Three Amigos rode horses, also known as Colts, and 3. There is no reason #3. Just go with the name and shut the fuck up).
But here’s the thing. We’ve heard all this hype before. Nigh a year ago, if memory serves, a very similar Indy team came to The Razor to face a very similar Pats squad under very similar circumstances (it was the AFC Championship Game, but close enuff). The Indy offense was unstoppable then too. Peyton was coming off another 4000+ yard season and another surgical dismantling of the Broncos and had all these same weapons at his disposal. And what happened? Pats score first, a TD pass from Touchdown Tom Brady to D-Give, and never look back. The rest of the Pats’ scoring that day consisted of five Adam Vinatieri figgies and a safety on a botched punt snap (Indy’s first punt attempt of the post-season, if you’ll recall). 24 points for the home team, not nearly enough to stop the vaunted Colts offensive juggernaut, right? Well, four picks (three by Ty Law), five sacks and a forced fumble by Big Willie McGinnest later, and a nation full of “experts” are dining on a big fat crow buffet.
This year will be different, no doubt. Law is injured and ineligible to play for the balance of the season, as is fellow starting cornerback Tyrone Poole, leaving a pair of undrafted rookies (Randall Gay and Earthwind Moreland), a converted safety (Eugene Wilson) and a veteran wide receiver (Troy Brown) to defend against Pretty Boy Peyton and The Three Amigos (see how good that sounds?). The absence of these key components has proven fuel to the collective fire of the same “experts” who believe that this is finally the year that Peyton and the Colts get the Belichick monkey off their backs. But what is important to note is that of the four INTs that the Pats reeled in last year, only one was of spectacular fashion (Law’s diving snag on the far sideline in front of Starvin’ Marvin Harrison). The other three were the result of tipped passes or excellent pressure by the Pats’ D-line and linebackers, leading to easy picks by Law and Poole. Picks that any DB worth his jock would catch. This game has MUCH more to do with the Pats’ front seven vs. the Colts O-line/TEs, a battle that the boys from Foxborough continue to dominate. Look for a big game from Tedy Bruschi (great article by Josh Elliot in last week’s SI, btw), Colt-killah McGinnest, Big Play Jarvis Green and Rough Rider Roosevelt Colvin, both of which who could be seeing added playing time on account of Pro-Bowler (not Pro Bowler) Richard Seymour’s leg injury. Pats win again and Peyton goes home to look at his pretty pair of MVP trophies (with no Lombardi trophy to match).
If you’re looking for me this weekend, I’ll be the one chewing on the nubs where my fingers used to be.
I love this shit.
Last week: 2-2
posted by bd @ 1/14/2005 01:41:00 PM
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