Tip-toeing the Line
First off, I invite you all to check out the voting for the completely unofficial Best of Blogs Awards competition being run by Blog Mechanics…and be sure to vote for NMTE favorite Soxaholix (improperly spelled on the ballot, but you’ll figure it out) in the Best Sports Blog category. Also, if you have a minute, check out some of the nominees in the “Blog Whore” category. And you thought I had too much time on my hands.
Moving on, after a successful if unspectacular regular season of picking NFL games, it is time for the playoffs. And since the postseason is the time when real players play at their best and rise to the challenge of superior competition, I too will raise the bar for my performance. That’s right folks, Mr. Vegas is taking another stab at betting the money lines. Cover your eyes and hide the Prozac. This could be a long month.
Home team in CAPS:
St. Louis (+4) over SEATTLE – This one kills me. As the final weeks of the regular season came, I saw the unthinkable happen before my eyes. The Saints (Jim Haslett), the Rams (Mike Martz) and the ‘Hawks (Mike Holmgren) all in the running for the playoffs? The holy trinity of big game choke artists battling for ultimate supremacy in the realm of blowing the big one? I thought I had it made.
Then week seventeen spoiled all my fun. Not only did New Orleans barely miss backing into the dance (though in a pinch Mike Tice should make a fine substitute for Haslett) but we found out that the Rams and the ‘Hawks would be playing each other in the first round. WTF!?!
So now I’m left with a major quandary: which one of these guys wants to lose this game more? Though Martz’s failures are more highly publicized, Holmgren has been doing this a whole lot longer and has got the thing down to an artform—especially against these Rams. St. Louis wins this one outright and Seahawks fans cry themselves to sleep reading Sports Illustrated’s NFL preview issue.
GREEN BAY (-6) over Minnesota – In years past, this game would have been a gimme: the Vikings, a dome team with a dubious head coach in Tice, a hobbled star player in Randy Moss and only three wins in their last ten games heading into the Frozen Tundra to face Brett Favre and the Packers in the playoffs? Game over, right?
But this year something’s different. With all the personal shit that Favre has had to deal with this year—his father died, his wife got diagnosed with breast cancer, his brother-in-law died in an ATV accident on Brett’s property, and I think his pet parrot had a stroke before the Jacksonville game—it’s hard to say that the Pack has the same mystique at home in the playoffs that it has in previous years. Their defense is porous at best, Brett is playing with a heavy heart and residue from another concussion earlier this year, and let us not forget the Mike Sherman factor.
That being said, c’mon! I’m gonna pick the Vikes? They’re 3-7 in their last ten games! Randy Moss is limping downfield on fly patterns like Kaiser Sosei leaving the police station! After watching Moss skulk to the locker room before the game was even over last week, it is clear that either Mike Tice has no control over his team or the lead from the pencil behind his ear has seeped into his bloodstream and making him believe he’s coaching a team that actually deserves to be in the playoffs.
Bonus prediction: Either Tice or Moss will not be with the team next year. And Red McCombs just stopped payment on a check to the folks at Dixon-Ticondaroga.
INDIANAPOLIS (–9.5) over Denver – Nice try, Vegas. You almost had me there. I checked out the money line last night, saw a big fat “(–10)” next to the Colts and actually thought to myself “this could be a close game…”
But not to worry, dear reader. I came to my senses soon after and flogged myself liberally even before I came into the office this morning and saw that the line had moved down to –9.5. That half point shift, if memory serves, can be accounted for by heavy bets in Vegas laid on the Broncos by “smart money”. Enough to convince the oddsmakers that Denver has a legitimate shot of losing by less than double digits. That’s all I needed to know. If smart money is on Jake Plummer keeping this thing close or God forbid outdueling Peyton Manning, then the game’s already over.
Also, consider the following: Mike Shanahan’s steady physical maturation into President Bartlett from the West Wing—and the accompanying onset of M.S. induced blackouts; Jake’s playoff beard, which he began growing in late October; Ashlee Lelie’s stunning Andre Reed impression come playoff time; and Shanahan has not won a playoff game since John Elway retired (an overused stat but one that carries some weight with me).
Bonus prediction #2: To be heard at Sun Devil Stadium, September 2005: “And now, starting at quarterback for YOUR Arizona Cardinals…Jaaaaaaaaaaaaaake “The Snake” Pluuuuummeeeeeeer!”
SAN DIEGO (-6.5) over N.Y. Jets – Despite the aforementioned considerations regarding Denver, the Jets are clearly the worst team in the AFC playoff hunt. That of course means that they would be worthy of a first round bye in the NFC, but that’s neither here nor there.
Since jumping out to a 6-1 start, the Jets are a pedestrian 4-5 since November 1st, with their only victories in that time coming at home against Houston and Seattle and unimpressive wins at Cleveland (10-7) and at Arizona (13-3), teams with a combined 26-38 (.406) record. Now, a week after backing into the playoffs following a demoralizing loss against St. Louis, Herm Edwards’ boys are on the road again, facing a recharged Chargers team that rested a whole mess of their starters last week.
Now, a lot of folks are gonna be yammering on about Chargers’ coach Marty Schottenheimer’s record of historic and monumental collapses in the playoffs: Ernest Byner’s fumble. “The Drive” (bonus points for anyone who can tell me what the eff language this is). We all know the stories. But here’s the thing, folks. How monumental would a collapse in this game be? First round of the playoffs? Against the Jets? The second of two games on a Saturday? You think this is a big enough game for a true Schottenheimerian choke? This is child’s play to Marty. This is the game that Marty’s boys play their hearts out in, execute their offense to perfection, play hard smash-mouth defense and end up steamrollering the opposition. The players gets some confidence. The fans really start believing that this could be it. They can see the Super Bowl on the horizon. Smell it. Taste it. Feel the Lombardi Trophy in their hands. Restaurant owners start littering their lunch menus with “Marty Dogs” and “Schottenburgers” and every expectant father sneaks Drew, Antonio and LaDanian onto the baby name list.
Then and only then is the stage truly set for Marty’s team to blow it. In the championship game. Against a bitter rival. Preferably in the snow (though torrential rain may have to do for SoCal). And everyone remembers why this really nice guy who gets his players to play really hard and gameplans with the best of ‘em has been run out of town on a rail twice already. That’s Marty for ya.
Enjoy the games, kids.
Last week: 10-6
Overall: 142-98 (59.2%)
Moving on, after a successful if unspectacular regular season of picking NFL games, it is time for the playoffs. And since the postseason is the time when real players play at their best and rise to the challenge of superior competition, I too will raise the bar for my performance. That’s right folks, Mr. Vegas is taking another stab at betting the money lines. Cover your eyes and hide the Prozac. This could be a long month.
Home team in CAPS:
St. Louis (+4) over SEATTLE – This one kills me. As the final weeks of the regular season came, I saw the unthinkable happen before my eyes. The Saints (Jim Haslett), the Rams (Mike Martz) and the ‘Hawks (Mike Holmgren) all in the running for the playoffs? The holy trinity of big game choke artists battling for ultimate supremacy in the realm of blowing the big one? I thought I had it made.
Then week seventeen spoiled all my fun. Not only did New Orleans barely miss backing into the dance (though in a pinch Mike Tice should make a fine substitute for Haslett) but we found out that the Rams and the ‘Hawks would be playing each other in the first round. WTF!?!
So now I’m left with a major quandary: which one of these guys wants to lose this game more? Though Martz’s failures are more highly publicized, Holmgren has been doing this a whole lot longer and has got the thing down to an artform—especially against these Rams. St. Louis wins this one outright and Seahawks fans cry themselves to sleep reading Sports Illustrated’s NFL preview issue.
GREEN BAY (-6) over Minnesota – In years past, this game would have been a gimme: the Vikings, a dome team with a dubious head coach in Tice, a hobbled star player in Randy Moss and only three wins in their last ten games heading into the Frozen Tundra to face Brett Favre and the Packers in the playoffs? Game over, right?
But this year something’s different. With all the personal shit that Favre has had to deal with this year—his father died, his wife got diagnosed with breast cancer, his brother-in-law died in an ATV accident on Brett’s property, and I think his pet parrot had a stroke before the Jacksonville game—it’s hard to say that the Pack has the same mystique at home in the playoffs that it has in previous years. Their defense is porous at best, Brett is playing with a heavy heart and residue from another concussion earlier this year, and let us not forget the Mike Sherman factor.
That being said, c’mon! I’m gonna pick the Vikes? They’re 3-7 in their last ten games! Randy Moss is limping downfield on fly patterns like Kaiser Sosei leaving the police station! After watching Moss skulk to the locker room before the game was even over last week, it is clear that either Mike Tice has no control over his team or the lead from the pencil behind his ear has seeped into his bloodstream and making him believe he’s coaching a team that actually deserves to be in the playoffs.
Bonus prediction: Either Tice or Moss will not be with the team next year. And Red McCombs just stopped payment on a check to the folks at Dixon-Ticondaroga.
INDIANAPOLIS (–9.5) over Denver – Nice try, Vegas. You almost had me there. I checked out the money line last night, saw a big fat “(–10)” next to the Colts and actually thought to myself “this could be a close game…”
But not to worry, dear reader. I came to my senses soon after and flogged myself liberally even before I came into the office this morning and saw that the line had moved down to –9.5. That half point shift, if memory serves, can be accounted for by heavy bets in Vegas laid on the Broncos by “smart money”. Enough to convince the oddsmakers that Denver has a legitimate shot of losing by less than double digits. That’s all I needed to know. If smart money is on Jake Plummer keeping this thing close or God forbid outdueling Peyton Manning, then the game’s already over.
Also, consider the following: Mike Shanahan’s steady physical maturation into President Bartlett from the West Wing—and the accompanying onset of M.S. induced blackouts; Jake’s playoff beard, which he began growing in late October; Ashlee Lelie’s stunning Andre Reed impression come playoff time; and Shanahan has not won a playoff game since John Elway retired (an overused stat but one that carries some weight with me).
Bonus prediction #2: To be heard at Sun Devil Stadium, September 2005: “And now, starting at quarterback for YOUR Arizona Cardinals…Jaaaaaaaaaaaaaake “The Snake” Pluuuuummeeeeeeer!”
SAN DIEGO (-6.5) over N.Y. Jets – Despite the aforementioned considerations regarding Denver, the Jets are clearly the worst team in the AFC playoff hunt. That of course means that they would be worthy of a first round bye in the NFC, but that’s neither here nor there.
Since jumping out to a 6-1 start, the Jets are a pedestrian 4-5 since November 1st, with their only victories in that time coming at home against Houston and Seattle and unimpressive wins at Cleveland (10-7) and at Arizona (13-3), teams with a combined 26-38 (.406) record. Now, a week after backing into the playoffs following a demoralizing loss against St. Louis, Herm Edwards’ boys are on the road again, facing a recharged Chargers team that rested a whole mess of their starters last week.
Now, a lot of folks are gonna be yammering on about Chargers’ coach Marty Schottenheimer’s record of historic and monumental collapses in the playoffs: Ernest Byner’s fumble. “The Drive” (bonus points for anyone who can tell me what the eff language this is). We all know the stories. But here’s the thing, folks. How monumental would a collapse in this game be? First round of the playoffs? Against the Jets? The second of two games on a Saturday? You think this is a big enough game for a true Schottenheimerian choke? This is child’s play to Marty. This is the game that Marty’s boys play their hearts out in, execute their offense to perfection, play hard smash-mouth defense and end up steamrollering the opposition. The players gets some confidence. The fans really start believing that this could be it. They can see the Super Bowl on the horizon. Smell it. Taste it. Feel the Lombardi Trophy in their hands. Restaurant owners start littering their lunch menus with “Marty Dogs” and “Schottenburgers” and every expectant father sneaks Drew, Antonio and LaDanian onto the baby name list.
Then and only then is the stage truly set for Marty’s team to blow it. In the championship game. Against a bitter rival. Preferably in the snow (though torrential rain may have to do for SoCal). And everyone remembers why this really nice guy who gets his players to play really hard and gameplans with the best of ‘em has been run out of town on a rail twice already. That’s Marty for ya.
Enjoy the games, kids.
Last week: 10-6
Overall: 142-98 (59.2%)
posted by bd @ 1/07/2005 06:22:00 PM
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